Q1 2026 is in the books, and it was an unusually active quarter for CEO open-market buying. With the quarter closed and prices settled, here's the scorecard: what the data actually showed, which signals scored highest, and — just as important — what these numbers don't prove.
The headline: buying ran hot
CEO open-market purchases in Q1 came in roughly 23% above the five-year average for the period. That matters because purchases, unlike sales, carry signal: a chief executive has no obligation to spend personal money on their own shares. When that activity clusters above trend, it's worth paying attention to the dispersion across sectors and conviction levels.
Elevated insider buying is a condition, not a forecast. It tilts the odds of forward returns historically — it does not tell you what any single stock will do next week.
What scored highest
Run through our six-factor methodology, the strongest Q1 signals shared three traits: meaningful purchase size relative to the insider's compensation, a constructive technical setup, and — in the best cases — more than one executive buying within days of each other.
| Trait | Why it raised the score |
|---|---|
| Large relative size | Conviction factor — real capital, not a token buy |
| Cluster buying | Multiple insiders independently reaching the same conclusion |
| Buy near range lows | Technical factor — insider disagreeing with the market's pessimism |
Cluster events did the heavy lifting
The quarter's standout signals were cluster buys — when a Co-CEO, Co-CEO, and COO all purchase on the same day, the noise floor drops considerably. We broke down the mechanics of why clusters score highest in a dedicated post.
How the tracked signals performed
Our backtest of 210 C-suite purchases with mechanical +10%/-15% exits returned +7.2% versus the S&P 500 at -2.83% over the test window, with an 89% win rate on closed positions. Live tracking since late December has been more modest but still positive against the benchmark. The full, position-by-position ledger — winners and losers — is public on the track record and aggregated in the 2026 performance report.
What this scorecard does not mean
- A hot quarter for buying doesn't guarantee a hot quarter for prices — the edge plays out over months and across many names.
- Backtested win rates benefit from a clean, frictionless model. Real fills, fees, and timing drag on results.
- One quarter is a small sample. Treat it as a data point, not a conclusion.
For the academic basis behind why purchases carry signal at all, see our review of the research.