We're halfway through 2026, which is a good moment to stop and ask the only question that matters: if you had followed every CEO buy signal since the start, would you have beaten just owning the index? Here's the honest mid-year answer — with a link to the live numbers so you can check us.
The setup
The test is simple and unchanged all year: $100 into every BUY / STRONG BUY signal, a matching $100 into SPY on the same day, mechanical +10%/-15% exits, everything else marked to current price. Equal-weighted, no discretion, no cherry-picking. The full reasoning behind the model is in this post.
This post is a snapshot. The 2026 performance report recomputes the real figures from live position data and carries an "as of" date — always trust that page over any number written here.
What the record shows
Our original 210-filing backtest returned +7.2% versus the S&P 500 at -2.83% with an 89% win rate. Live tracking since late December has carried that edge forward at a more realistic, more modest pace — positive alpha against SPY, with a win rate that's settled below the backtest's headline as the sample grew and real conditions intruded. That gap between backtest and live is expected, and we think it's the most important thing to show: the live number is always the one to trust.
Why the live number is lower — and that's fine
- Bigger sample. A backtest over one favorable window flatters itself. More signals pull results toward the long-run average.
- Open positions. Live, many positions are still open and marked to current price — unrealized and able to move against us.
- No survivorship. We don't drop the losers. They drag the average, as they should.
Beating the market is the bar — not beating a fantasy
The goal was never a number that looks good on a banner. It's to clear a real, conservative bar: did equal-weighted CEO-buy signals, after honest exits, beat the same money in the index? Through mid-year, against a choppy market, the answer has stayed yes — by a margin you can read for yourself, position by position, on the track record.
The caveats we won't drop
Hypothetical portfolio, no slippage or fees, AI-generated analysis that can be wrong, and an edge that is probabilistic over time rather than guaranteed on any name. Insider buying tilts the odds; it doesn't remove risk. For why the underlying signal works at all, see the academic evidence and our methodology.
Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.