Every BUY signal we publish opens a hypothetical $100 position. People ask why $100, and why a mock portfolio at all instead of just reporting "the stock went up." The answer is about honesty and comparability — here's the full model.
Why $100, equal-weighted
A fixed $100 per signal means every idea gets the same vote. No position can dominate the record because it happened to be large, and there's no temptation to size up the winners after the fact. Equal weighting is the most honest way to ask one question: does the average signal work?
Equal-weighted $100 positions remove sizing skill from the equation. What's left is the quality of the signal itself.
The matching SPY position
For every $100 signal, we open a matching $100 in SPY on the same day. This is the part most "track records" skip. A signal that returns +8% in a quarter the market returned +12% is not a good signal — it's a bad one dressed up in a green number. Pairing each buy with SPY turns raw return into alpha: performance relative to simply owning the market.
The exit rules
Positions close mechanically, with no discretion:
| Trigger | Action |
|---|---|
| Price hits +10% | Close at target (win) |
| Price hits -15% | Close at stop loss (loss) |
| Neither | Stay open, marked to current price |
The asymmetry (-15% stop, +10% target) is deliberate: insider-buying edges tend to show up as a higher hit rate rather than enormous single winners, so a tighter target with room to avoid getting shaken out early fits the strategy's shape. We test whether that's actually true in our stop-loss vs hold analysis.
Why hypothetical, and what that costs
No real money is traded. That keeps the record clean and reproducible, but it also means the numbers are optimistic: there's no slippage, no commission, no tax, and fills are assumed at the recorded price. Real-world results would be lower. We'd rather state that plainly than pretend a backtest is a brokerage statement.
Where to see it
The model isn't a slogan — it's running live. Every open and closed position sits on the track record, and the 2026 performance report aggregates the whole thing against SPY with an "as of" date. The exact scoring that decides which buys become positions is in the methodology.
None of this is financial advice. It's a transparent way to keep ourselves honest about whether the signals work.